My previous tests were somewhat incomplete, in that the NEF file and the JPEG file I compared came from different shutter releases. This time, I used my D70’s NEF + JPEG mode so that I make sure I’m getting the exact same photo as a comparison point.
Below are three sets of photos. In each set, the camera converted JPEG comes first, followed by the Raw Developer converted (with default settings) and finally one converted by Lightroom. The Raw conversions were based on the same NEF file, and all files were scaled down to fit in a 400×300 space by Aperture.

Camera

Raw Developer

Lightroom

Camera

Raw Developer

Lightroom

Camera

Raw Developer

Lightroom

As you can see, while the Raw Developer and Lightroom output look pretty similar, they consistenly look different from the camera’s JPEG output. In the first shot, the flowers are more purple than blue, in the second and third, the strength of the reds is much more apparent in the camera JPEG than either of the Raw converters.
Which one is more correct? Well I went out to the garden to look at them again, but now its sunny whereas it was overcast when I took the shots. So I’m not sure. I’ll have to wait for another overcast day to confirm how they actually look.