A few more sample points. Here are the same results from a trial version of Nikon’s new Capture NX, and Capture One LE.

Camera

Nikon Capture NX

Capture One

Interestingly, Capture NX actually looks really close to the original JPEG (the brightness is a little different, but the colors seem the closest out of all the conversions I’ve looked at so far). Makes sense, since they should have all the access they need to the info that lets them reproduce the camera’s interpretation.
Too bad Capture NX has a really bizarre interface.